Back-to-back US Open champion Aryna Sabalenka is making a bold push for history. The Belarusian star is aiming to become the first woman in over a decade to secure three consecutive US Open titles, a feat previously accomplished by Serena Williams between 2012 and 2014. This pursuit of a third straight championship is just one of many challenges she faces at this year’s tournament.
Sabalenka’s performance this season has not met her usual high standards, and as a result, she is at risk of losing her World No. 1 ranking. The competition for the top spot is fierce, with Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, and Coco Gauff all vying for position. Each of these players poses a significant threat, and their strong performances could potentially unseat Sabalenka from the number one spot.
On the men’s side, the draw is more open than ever. Two of the sport’s most dominant players, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, are either sidelined or returning after extended breaks. Sinner, who was expected to be a major contender, is out due to injury, while Alcaraz is making his return to singles play after nearly four months away. These absences have created an opportunity for other players to step into the spotlight.
Sinner and Alcaraz have been instrumental in shaping the recent landscape of men’s tennis, winning three of the last four US Open titles. Their absence means that the path to the championship is less predictable, opening the door for underdogs and rising stars to make their mark.
Winners
Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina can claim the No. 1 spot in the WTA rankings for the first time in her career by making it to the US Open semifinal. However, Achilles soreness could be Rybakina’s Achilles heel after suffering an injury scare at the Cincinnati Open last week. Bad news: Rybakina hasn’t confirmed if she’ll play yet. Good news: The two-time Grand Slam champion has a relatively easy draw in the first two rounds, which provide an opportunity to test out her ankle to see if she’s good to go. Rybakina opens the US Open against Thea Frodin and could face Darja Vidmanova in the second round.
Then things heat up. Rybakina has a potential third-round matchup against Maria Sakkari and a possible fourth-round battle against two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka. Rybakina could then meet former world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals; Swiatek defeated her in the Canadian Open final earlier this month.
Rybakina has never advanced past the fourth round at the US Open.
American men
An American man hasn’t won the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003, a decades long drought that dominates the headlines every year the fourth and final Grand Slam of the year rolls around. However, this may be the year that a U.S. man breaks through. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have been mainstays in Grand Slam finals, but with Sinner injured and Alcaraz returning to singles after nearly four months, the field is as wide open as ever. There are six Americans ranked in the Top 25 in the world — Ben Shelton (No. 9), Taylor Fritz (No. 10), Frances Tiafoe (No. 12), Learner Tien (No. 15.), Brandon Nakashima (No. 17) and Tommy Paul (No. 21). Fritz (Washington, D.C.) and Shelton (Montreal) each won hard-court titles this summer, while Nakashima (Montreal) and Tiafoe (Cincinnati) both advanced to finals. Can an American man break through in New York?
Jessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula told USA TODAY Sports her “goal is to win the tournament.” Her path to her first Grand Slam title is wide open. Pegula opens the tournament against Elena-Gabriela Ruse and will face the winner of Venus Williams and Sofia Kenin. (More on that later.) She faces a potential third-round matchup against No. 31 Leylah Fernandez and could then meet No. 16 Sorana Cirstea, who Pegula has a 3-1 record against. Her draw intensifies in the quarterfinal round, where No. 7 seed Karolina Muchova or No. 9 Elina Svitolina could await. Then, Pegula could face Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals. Pegula lost the first and only Grand Slam final of her career at the 2024 US Open to Sabalenka in straight sets. Pegula also lost to Sabalenka in the semifinals last year.
First-round matchups
Fans won’t have to wait long for action as the draw offered up several tantalizing first-round matchups. Let’s start with the first-round matchup between No. 10 Arthur Fils and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Fils is coming off his first ATP Masters 1000 title at Cincinnati, where he downed Frances Tiafoe in three sets. Tsitsipas hasn’t made it past the second round at any major this year, but you can’t discount his ability to compete as he’s reached to Grand Slam finals in his career (2021 French Open and 2023 Australian Open). On the women’s side of the draw, I’m circling the matchup between No. 20 Maja Chwalińska, the 2026 French Open finalist, and American Taylor Townsend. Townsend brings her best tennis in New York and has advanced to the fourth round at the US Open twice, including last year. Get your popcorn.
Losers
Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic is chasing his elusive 25th Grand Slam title – which would break the all-time record for men or women – but he’ll have to go through the gauntlet to claim it. He opens the tournament with his first-ever meeting against Mariano Navone. Djokovic could meet Matteo Berrettini (2021 Wimbeldon finalist) or three-time Grand Slam winner Stan Wawrinka in the second round. In the third round, Djokovic could face No. 27 Tomas Etcheverry and possibly No. 16 Brandon Nakashima or No. 23 Andrey Rublev in the fourth round. No. 7 Daniil Medvedev could await Djokovic in the quarterfinals, while No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, No. 8 Ben Shelton and No. 10 Arthur Fils could be a possible opponent in the semifinals. If the 39-year-old makes it to the final, he’d then have to get through No. 1 Alexander Zverev. Whew.
Aryna Sabalenka
This isn’t the first time Aryna Sabalenka has gone for a three-peat. She had the opportunity to win three consecutive Australian Open titles in 2025 but was denied by Rybakina. Sabalenka again has the chance to complete the three-peat at the US Open, but this year hasn’t been smooth sailing for the WTA’s top player. Sabalenka hasn’t won a Grand Slam title this year, and her No. 1 ranking is in jeopardy. The road ahead presents a challenge if she wants to keep her nearly-100-week run at the top alive. Sabalenka could face No. 27 Barbora Krejcikova in the third round, No. 15 Diana Shnaider in the fourth round and No. 6 Linda Noskova, who won the 2026 Wimbledon tournament, in the quarterfinals.
Coco Gauff
It’s hard to label the freshly-minted 2026 Cincinnati Open champion a loser, but she drew one of the toughest paths to the title. Gauff could face either Paula Badosa or Daria Kasatkina in the second round, two unseeded opponents at this year’s tournament, but nonetheless dangerous. Badosa and Kasatkina were formerly ranked Top 10 in the world, and Badosa recently defeated Gauff on grass in Berlin in June. A potential third-round matchup against No. 28 Sara Bejlek awaits Gauff, marking a rematch of their semifinal bout at the Cincinnati Open last week. Gauff won 6-4, 6-1 and went on to win the title against Jessica Pegula.
In the fourth round, Gauff could meet No. 14 Iva Jovic or No. 17 Alexandra Eala. If Gauff advances to the US Open quarterfinal for the third time in her career, she could face No. 5 Mirra Andreeva, the 2026 French Open champion. Gauff has won all five of their matchups, most recently on clay in the quarterfinals of the Italian Open in May before Andreeva won the French Open the following month. Gauff and Andreeva have faced off once on a hard court, with Gauff walking away with a 6-3, 6-2 win in the second round of the 2023 US Open.
Gauff could also face fellow American Amanda Anisimova, the No. 10 seed, in the quarterfinal. Anisimova leads the head-to-head over Gauff 2-1 and was a finalist at last year’s US Open. No. 2 Elena Rybakina or No. 8 Iga Swiatek could await in the semifinal. Rybakina is the reigning Australian Open champion and won Wimbledon in 2022. Swiatek has won six Grand Slam singles titles in her career, including the 2022 US Open, and was ranked No. 1 in the world for 125 weeks.
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe underwent surgery earlier this month to remove a cyst on his right hand and went against doctor’s orders by competing at the Cincinnati Open days later. “They didn’t actually want me to play here … but obviously every athlete’s stubborn,” Tiafoe said after his semifinal win. He advanced to the finals, before suffering a 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 defeat to France’s Arthur Fils. Tiafoe took a medical timeout during the final and later withdrew from the US Open mixed doubles event, leaving some wondering if his status for the US Open is in jeopardy.
Tiafoe has experienced the best success of his career in New York with his two Grand Slam semifinal appearances (2022, 2024) coming at the US Open. The draw does him some favors in the beginning to allow time to find his form. He’ll face fellow American Martin Damm Jr. in the first round and has a potential second-round match against Australian Aleksandar Vukic. (He owns the head-to-head against both players.) That’s where things get tough. He could face No. 7 Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round, No. 4 Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals.
Venus Williams
Serena Williams dazzled in her quarterfinal run in the US Open mixed doubles event alongside Carlos Alcaraz. Now, all eyes will be on Venus Williams as she prepares to step on the court. Venus Williams, 46, is set to play in her 26th US Open after receiving a wild card entry in the main draw, where she’ll face a Grand Slam champion in the first round. Williams is set to take on Sofia Kenin, who won the 2020 Australian Open on a hard court. Williams played singles during last year’s edition and the Australian Open earlier this year, suffering first-round defeats in both appearances. Her draw is tough.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: US Open draw winners, losers: Sabalenka, Djokovic face grueling paths to final
The release of the main draw on Thursday, August 27, has provided clarity for fans and players alike. It has also sparked discussions about which players are in the best position to win and which ones might face early exits. Here are some key takeaways from the draw:
- Top seeds in focus: Alexander Zverev and Aryna Sabalenka are leading their respective draws, but their paths to the final are not without challenges. Both players will need to navigate tough matchups and maintain consistency throughout the tournament.
- New opportunities for others: With Sinner and Alcaraz out or returning, several players now have a clearer route to the later stages of the tournament. This includes players like Novak Djokovic, who has historically performed well at the US Open.
- Rising stars: Younger players such as Holger Rune and Iga Świątek are entering the tournament with confidence, having shown strong form in recent events. Their presence adds an exciting dynamic to the competition.
The US Open is known for its unpredictable nature, and this year’s draw is no different. While the top seeds remain favorites, the absence of key players and the emergence of new talent mean that anything can happen. For Sabalenka, the stakes are higher than ever—both in terms of securing a historic third title and protecting her World No. 1 ranking.
As the tournament approaches, all eyes will be on how the players adapt to the challenges ahead. Whether it’s a battle for the top ranking or a quest for a historic achievement, the US Open promises to deliver thrilling moments and unforgettable matches.
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