The Shifting Political Landscape in Key States

Democrats are mounting competitive Senate and gubernatorial campaigns in several states that President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election. These contests in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas have raised questions about whether Republicans, who hold both the House and Senate majorities, face mounting political headwinds ahead of the 2026 midterms and whether Democrats can capitalize on them.

Trump’s Slipping Approval Rating

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, highlighted that “presidential approval and the state of the economy are both strong predictors to outcomes in congressional races in midterms. The president’s sagging rating on both of these metrics are making races in these states more competitive than we’d expect.”

Trump’s approval ratings have raised concerns among some Republicans as the party heads into the 2026 midterms. Nationally, 35 percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance while 59 percent disapprove as of August 27, leaving him significantly underwater with a net approval rating of -24, according to Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of registered voters.

An August 25 Economist/YouGov poll found 35 percent of Americans approved of the president’s job performance, with a net approval rating of -26. Compared to a similar poll during the same point in his first term, his net approval rating was -9 and former Democratic President Joe Biden’s -12.

Aggregators like RealClearPolitics show Trump with a 40 percent approval rating and 57 percent disapproval, while the Silver Bulletin puts his approval rating at 38 percent. A new Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll fielded August 14-19, which surveyed 1,514 U.S. adults ages 18 and older, found Trump underwater on all 12 issues it tracks, as border security—his last positive rating—slipped to −5. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.6 percent.

Alex Patton, owner of strategic public affairs firm Ozean Media, noted that the current climate is not a result of just one factor; rather it is being driven by a “toxic soup of mega-trends of economic factors, inflation, gas prices, grocery prices, the job market, the President’s record-low approval numbers (especially with Independents), the quagmire in Iran, and, in some cases, terrible candidates.”

He described the current political environment as “terrible, gawd-awful” for the GOP, “with maybe the only win being the stock market, and the stock market is not the economy.”

Hans Noel, a professor of government at Georgetown University, stated that “Trump has involved himself even more in the midterms, so voters are even less likely to not think of him when they vote.”

Trump’s 2024 Election Victory

Trump won the 2024 election against then-Vice President Kamala Harris, securing 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 226 and winning the national popular vote. Trump carried 31 states overall, including 24 by double-digit margins, and clinched all the swing states. His margins among the states he won by double digits ranged from Ohio, which he won by 11.2 percentage points, to deeply Republican Wyoming, where he won by 45.8 points. Other states he won by double digits included Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee and West Virginia.

Republicans also regained control of the Senate in 2024, flipping Democratic-held seats and securing a majority in the chamber, while maintaining control of the House of Representatives. At the state level, Republicans entered 2025 holding a majority of governorships nationwide.

“At the end of the day, in 2024 Donald Trump was a rising tide lifting all Republican boats, but in 2026 he is a falling tide lowering all Republican boats from sea to shining sea,” Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, told Wartabrita.com.

2026 Midterms

Political experts note that losses by the party controlling the White House are common in midterm elections. However, they also caution against viewing the 2026 midterms solely as a referendum on Trump, noting that while the president’s approval ratings and the national political environment are likely to play the largest role in the elections, factors such as candidate quality, local issues and state-specific dynamics are also helping shape a number of competitive races.

“Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats in the 2010 midterm, then another 13 House seats and nine Senate seats in 2014, both under Obama,” Matt Klink, owner and president of Klink Campaigns, told Wartabrita.com, noting that those elections occurred under presidents who were more popular than Trump is now.

He added that Republicans also faced significant setbacks during Trump’s first term, noting that “Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018, Trump’s own first midterm.”

Many analysts suggest that Trump’s standing with voters is giving Democrats opportunities in states that would normally be difficult targets.

Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist at Upshift Strategies, told Wartabrita.com, “Trump’s historic unpopularity and the fact that the majority of voters believe that he has failed to deliver on his promise to lower prices have given Democrats an excellent opportunity to compete in states that might have otherwise been out of reach,” while cautioning that there is still a long way to go before Election Day.

Not all analysts view the races primarily through a national lens, though. Tim Hagle, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Iowa, noted that “midterms also tend to be more about local issues,” though he said campaigns can sometimes become nationalized, a strategy he believes both parties are pursuing this cycle.

Still, some observers say the Senate map looks markedly different from it did just a few months ago. Reflecting on the shifting landscape, Jones told Wartabrita.com that “six months ago, the best Democrats looked likely to be able to achieve in the U.S. Senate was a reduction of the Republican advantage to 51-49 for the final two years of Donald Trump’s term in office, but today they have a clear pathway to a majority, one which only requires them to win three of the current six toss up races.”

Noel from Georgetown University said, “In general, the Democratic Party has been trying to find a way to break through to voters they have lost to Trump, and midterm elections are great place to experiment with that.”

Voters will determine the balance of power in Congress and a series of state races in less than 75 days.

Alaska

Trump easily carried Alaska in the 2024 presidential election, winning 54.5 percent of the vote to Harris’ 41.4 percent, a margin of about 13.1 percentage points. Despite Alaska’s Republican tilt at the presidential level, Democrats have remained competitive in statewide races, aided in part by the state’s ranked-choice voting system.

Alaska has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968, with comfortable margins for Trump in the past three elections. The state has not elected a Democratic governor since Tony Knowles left office in 2002, and the state’s last Democratic U.S. senator, Mark Begich, left office in 2015.

Alaska Senate Race

The Senate contest has emerged as one of Democrats’ more plausible pickup opportunities in 2026. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is seeking another term, while Democrats are backing former Representative Mary Peltola, who won a special House election in 2022 before losing reelection in 2024.

Dave Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College, told Wartabrita.com, “Senate Democrats are benefiting from a successful recruiting year for Senate candidates, particularly in Alaska where Mary Peltola was the strongest possible Democratic nominee.”

Polling shows a tight race. A Data for Progress survey of 605 likely voters in Alaska found that in the first round of voting, no candidate received an outright majority, with 47 percent saying they would vote for Peltola compared to 41 percent for Sullivan. In Alaska, all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party, and the four with the most support advance to the general election.

Three percent said they would vote for Gerald Heikes, another Republican candidate, while 5 percent were undecided. In the final round of ranked-choice voting, however, Peltola led Sullivan by 6 points, 53 percent to 47 percent, according to the poll. It surveyed 605 likely voters in Alaska from July 28 to August 4, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

An Alaska Survey Research poll put Peltola ahead of Sullivan 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent in the final round. It surveyed 1,371 likely voters from August 2-5, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

However, a June New York Times/Siena College poll found Sullivan ahead 47 percent to 45 percent, with about 5 percent undecided. The poll of 593 Alaskan voters was conducted between June 15 and 19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a “toss up.” While Alaska’s open governor’s race is expected to be competitive, major election forecasters still give Republicans an edge.

Ohio

“Ohio is the one to watch,” Klink told Wartabrita.com. Patton and Hagle also noted that the state represents Democrats’ strongest pickup opportunity of the cycle.

Trump carried the state by about 11 percentage points in 2024, an improvement over his 2020 and 2016 performances, when he won by about 8 points each time. But Ohio was viewed as more competitive for Democrats not long before. Former President Barack Obama narrowly carried Ohio in 2008 and 2012. It has shifted as Trump performed well among the state’s working-class voters.

Despite that Republican trend, Ohio has a history of electing Democrats statewide. The state’s most recent Democratic senator was Sherrod Brown, who served from 2007 until his defeat by Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024. Brown is now seeking a return to the Senate in a 2026 race against Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the remainder of Vice President JD Vance’s term.

Ohio Senate Race

Brown, who represented Ohio in the Senate for 18 years, is now facing Husted for the full-term Senate seat.

An August Fox News poll found Brown leading Husted by 8 points, 53 percent to 45 percent, with about 2 percent undecided. Brown leads among independents in Ohio by 38 points, 66 percent to 28 percent for Husted. The poll of 1,008 registered Ohio voters was conducted August 6-10.

A Wedgewood Poll of 800 likely voters conducted between August 11 and 13 found Brown with 48 percent to Husted’s 44 percent. About 8 percent of voters were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the race as a toss-up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted it from Lean Republican earlier in June after Brown and Husted formally won their parties’ nominations.

Ohio Governor’s Race

The state’s most recent Democratic governor was Ted Strickland, who served from 2007 to 2011. Ohio has elected only Republican governors since then, including current Governor Mike DeWine, who won reelection in 2022 but is now term-limited.

Democrat Amy Acton, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health who gained statewide prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic, is facing Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a former presidential candidate and DOGE member.

Polls point to a close matchup. The same Wedgewood poll found an even tighter race for the governor’s mansion, with Acton ahead by 1 point, 47 percent to Ramaswamy’s 46 percent. Seven percent of the participants were undecided.

A Fox News poll conducted August 6 to 10 among 1,008 registered voters put Ramaswamy ahead, 50 percent to 48 percent. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Tulchin Research found Acton leading 46 percent to 44 percent in a survey sponsored by John Kulewicz, the Democratic candidate for Ohio attorney general. The survey, conducted July 29 to August 4 among 660 likely voters, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of 601 likely voters, conducted June 15 to 28, had the candidates tied at 47 percent. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.

An AARP survey conducted June 14 to 16 by Democratic firm Impact Research and Republican firm Fabrizio, Lee & Associates gave Acton a 47 percent to 44 percent lead among 800 likely voters. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up after moving it from the Lean Republican column in a July update. Explaining the shift, the forecaster wrote that “it’s an inescapable law of politics: Money can only propel a campaign so far when its candidate’s flaws act as an anchor.”

Texas

Texas has backed Republican presidential nominees in every election since 1980, but Democrats hope 2026 will offer one of their best opportunities in years to compete statewide. Trump carried Texas by 13.7 percentage points in 2024, defeating Harris 56 percent to around 42.5 percent.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making it one of the nation’s longest-running Republican strongholds. Democrats have repeatedly targeted the state as demographic shifts and population growth have reshaped its electorate, but they have fallen short in a series of closely watched campaigns, including Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate bid against Ted Cruz.

Texas Senate Race

The GOP’s decades-long hold on Texas statewide offices will be tested in November, with the Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico nearly deadlocked.

Surveys show both Paxton, who is endorsed by Trump, and Talarico, who has served as a state representative since 2018, holding narrow leads at different points in the campaign. The matchup follows Paxton’s defeat of longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary in late May.

“Texas is the wild card: with Ken Paxton defeating John Cornyn in the GOP primary, Democrats inherited a nominee carrying real legal baggage. Right now, the race is less about James Talarico and more about Ken Paxton, his money problems, and his personal foibles,” Klink said.

Jones also spoke about Paxton’s reputational and legal history to Wartabrita.com, stating, “Candidate quality is an issue for Republicans in a few instances, and is having an especially negative impact on Republican prospects in Texas where Ken Paxton arguably is the weakest major statewide Republican candidate in modern Texas GOP history.” Hopkins said his “scandal-ridden past seems to be a serious liability.”

In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House impeached Paxton on 20 articles. The Texas Senate acquitted him. Paxton has repeatedly dismissed the impeachment and other allegations as politically motivated.

Accusations of bribery and infidelity also circulated during the impeachment trial, with one of the articles stating that Paxton “benefited from Nate Paul’s employment of a woman with whom Paxton was having an extramarital affair.” His wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in 2025, following “recent discoveries” and citing “biblical grounds.”

Polls appear to flip-flop on who is leading, as a recent Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,000 likely Texas voters puts the Senate race in a near dead heat, with 47 percent backing Paxton and 46 percent supporting Talarico.

About 5 percent are undecided and 2 percent back a different candidate. The poll was conducted August 9-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A Fox News poll of 1,006 registered Texas voters found that 51 percent back Talarico and 48 percent Paxton, with 1 percent undecided. The survey was conducted July 23-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as “toss up.”

Iowa

Iowa was viewed as a battleground for much of the 2000s, with Obama carrying the state by about 10 points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012. But Trump performed well in the state in each of his presidential bids, winning by 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.

Iowa Senate Race

Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is going against Democratic state Representative Josh Turek in the Iowa Senate race. They are running to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who chose not to run for reelection. Democrats haven’t secured a Senate seat in the state since Tom Harkin’s election in 2008.

Turek is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist and state House member, first elected in 2022. Obama endorsed him in a late-July video, while Trump has endorsed Hinson, who was first elected in 2020 after serving in the state House and working as a journalist.

“I’m not sure Iowa’s Senate race is as close as some polls show, but we do have three competitive House races too, so Democrats are hopeful,” Hagle from the University of Iowa said.

An Emerson poll this month found Hinson with a slight lead, 47.5 percent to 45 percent. She was viewed favorably by 44 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 40 percent, while Turek was viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent.

It surveyed 712 likely voters August 2-4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

A Fox News poll of 1,003 Iowa registered voters found Turek leading Hinson 50 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The poll was conducted June 23-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report updated the race’s rating from leaning Republican to a toss-up on August 20.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the race as “leans Republican.” Polling averages suggest a competitive contest. RealClearPolling’s average shows the race nearly tied, with Hinson at 47 percent and Turek at 46.3 percent.

Iowa Governor’s Race

Republican Governor Kim Reynolds, who has led the state since 2017, is not seeking reelection. The last time a Democrat won Iowa’s governorship was in 2006, when Chet Culver was elected. Culver lost his reelection in 2010 to Republican Terry Branstad, and Republicans have been in office ever since.

Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand, a Democrat, is going up against Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the state’s open governor’s race.

“For Republicans, Lahn is basically an unknown. His victory in the primary was a surprise, likely to him as well, and he’s had to work on increasing his name ID,” Hagle told Wartabrita.com, contrasting him with Sand’s name recognition given his state role.

“Sand has built a brand as a ‘numbers-guy auditor’ that plays well with independents,” Klink added.

A Suffolk University poll released Wednesday found Sand ahead of Lahn 48 percent to 44 percent among 500 likely Iowa voters, with 9 percent undecided. The survey, conducted August 20-23, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Sand’s advantage has held across a string of surveys this summer, though its size keeps shifting.

An Emerson College Polling survey put Sand up to 48 percent, while Trump fell to 43 percent. Two percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else, while 7 percent were still undecided. The survey polled 712 likely voters August 2-4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

A survey from The New York Times and Siena University, conducted among 600 likely voters June 15-27, showed Sand up a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent.

Meanwhile, a Fox News poll showed Sand up 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent. Beach Research and Shaw & Company Research conducted it from June 23-27 among 1,003 registered voters.

The Cook Political Report rates the race lean Democratic, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball places it in the toss-up category.

Kansas

Kansas has been a reliable state for the Republican Party at the presidential level for decades. Trump carried Kansas by 16.2 percentage points in 2024, defeating Harris 56.2 percent to 40 percent. The state has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson’s landslide victory in 1964.

Kansas’ Governor’s Race

Kansas’ open governor’s race has emerged as one of Democrats’ more surprising opportunities in 2026. Democrat Cindy Holscher is seeking to succeed term-limited Governor Laura Kelly, one of the few Democratic governors in a state Trump carried by double digits.

Republicans have nominated Ty Masterson and are favored by most forecasters, with the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rating the race as lean Republican.

There hasn’t been much public polling of the general election, but early polls show a competitive race.

A recent Global Strategy Group survey found Holscher leading Masterson by 1 percentage point, though the result was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Democratic sponsored poll of 600 likely voters was conducted between August 13 and 16.